Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 8524
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 8524 · HNL → LNY
departs 4:20 PM HT · arrives 5:16 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LNY more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LNY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at LNY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to LNY?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LNY that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
LNY usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into LNY at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
LNY (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.