Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 949
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 949 · MKK → HNL
departs 9:31 AM HT · arrives 10:31 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 10/28 41%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 27%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.33333 mi forecast at MKK that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
9am departures from MKK are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2.33333 mi Precip 0.16 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.