Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 998
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 998 · LUP → HNL
departs 9:39 AM HT · arrives 10:17 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 21%
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LUP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at HNL that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LUP
↓
9am departures from LUP are usually not late
Weather at each end
LUP (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.