Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1209 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 1209 · PHL → CLE

departs 2:59 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ CLE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1209 · PHL → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?