Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1412 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 1412 · ONT → DFW

departs 5:34 AM PT · arrives 10:41 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ ONT is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from ONT are usually not late

Weather at each end

ONT (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1412 · ONT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?