Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1475 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 1475 · ORD → LAS

departs 2:01 PM CT · arrives 4:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1475 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?