Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1793 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AA 1793 · PDX → DFW

departs 11:45 PM PT · arrives 5:37 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at PDX that day

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1793 · PDX → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?