Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 180 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 180 · ORD → NAP

departs 5:35 PM CT · arrives 9:19 AM CET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at NAP more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to NAP?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Arrivals into NAP at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

NAP (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 180 · ORD → NAP

Odds over time

How late will it get to NAP?