Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1863 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 1863 · IAD → DFW

departs 7:21 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1863 · IAD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?