Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2221 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 2221 · LGA → RDU

departs 9:47 AM ET · arrives 11:30 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 49% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2221 · LGA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?