Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2224 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 2224 · MCO → LGA

departs 6:22 PM ET · arrives 9:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2224 · MCO → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?