Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2254 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 2254 · DFW → IAD

departs 7:22 PM CT · arrives 11:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2254 · DFW → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?