Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2805 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 2805 · DFW → BWI

departs 3:32 PM CT · arrives 7:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2805 · DFW → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?