Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2840 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 2840 · ORD → PHL

departs 3:38 PM CT · arrives 6:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2840 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?