Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2860SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 2860 · PHX → SFO
departs 2:05 PM MT · arrives 4:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
35%chance · ±13 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.