Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2885 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 2885 · SFO → ORD

departs 10:49 AM PT · arrives 5:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2885 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?