Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 28 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Yesterday

AA 28 · LAX → JFK

departs 3:15 PM PT · arrives 11:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 28 · LAX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?