Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3039 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 3039 · ORD → IAH

departs 1:50 PM CT · arrives 4:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3039 · ORD → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?