AA 3168 · MTJ → DFW

departs 1:08 PM MT · arrives 4:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MTJ

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

MTJ (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3168 · MTJ → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?