Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3197 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 3197 · OMA → ORD

departs 8:08 AM CT · arrives 9:54 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from OMA are usually not late

Weather at each end

OMA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3197 · OMA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?