Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3222 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 3222 · ORD → BWI

departs 9:21 PM CT · arrives 12:24 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3222 · ORD → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?