Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 500 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 500 · DFW → IND

departs 10:16 AM CT · arrives 1:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 500 · DFW → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?