Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 727 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 727 · DFW → SEA

departs 2:33 PM CT · arrives 4:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 727 · DFW → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?