Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 857 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AA 857 · BOS → PHL

departs 4:59 PM ET · arrives 6:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 857 · BOS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?