Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 504 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AC 504 · ORD → YYZ

departs 10:12 AM CT · arrives 12:56 PM EDT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ YYZ usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 504 · ORD → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?