Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 509 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AC 509 · YYZ → ORD

departs 2:00 PM EDT · arrives 2:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 509 · YYZ → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?