Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 573 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AC 573 · SFO → YVR

departs 7:45 PM PT · arrives 10:09 PM PDT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YVR?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ AC's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YVR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 573 · SFO → YVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to YVR?