Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 724 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AC 724 · YYZ → LGA

departs 9:00 PM EDT · arrives 10:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±7 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 724 · YYZ → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?