Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 780 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AC 780 · LAX → YUL

departs 10:52 PM PT · arrives 6:59 AM EDT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into YUL at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

YUL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 780 · LAX → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?