Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 786 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AC 786 · LAX → YYZ

departs 11:40 AM PT · arrives 7:47 PM EDT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from LAX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ YYZ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 786 · LAX → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?