Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AZUL · FLIGHT AD 8707 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AD 8707 · MCO → VCP

departs 8:35 PM ET · arrives 6:15 AM -03

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at VCP more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to VCP?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at VCP

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

VCP (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AD 8707 · MCO → VCP

Odds over time

How late will it get to VCP?