Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR FRANCE · FLIGHT AF 6 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AF 6 · CDG → JFK

departs 1:30 PM CET · arrives 5:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CDG

Weather at each end

CDG (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AF 6 · CDG → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?