Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR FRANCE · FLIGHT AF 84 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AF 84 · CDG → SFO

departs 10:20 AM CET · arrives 1:26 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CDG

Weather at each end

CDG (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AF 84 · CDG → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?