Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AEROMÉXICO · FLIGHT AM 648 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AM 648 · MEX → LAX

departs 7:05 PM CST · arrives 9:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

↓ AM's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MEX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AM 648 · MEX → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?