AS 1004 · LIH → HNL

departs 6:00 AM HT · arrives 6:36 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from LIH are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1004 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?