Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1057 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 1057 · KOA → HNL

departs 10:51 AM HT · arrives 11:40 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ 10am departures from KOA are usually not late

↓ KOA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

HNL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1057 · KOA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?