Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1068 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 1068 · HNL → KOA

departs 9:09 AM HT · arrives 10:11 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at HNL that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ 9am departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into KOA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.08 in

KOA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1068 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?