Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1159 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 1159 · OGG → LIH

departs 2:24 PM HT · arrives 3:13 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↓ OGG usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.46 in

LIH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1159 · OGG → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?