Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1310 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 1310 · SEA → LGB

departs 6:16 PM PT · arrives 9:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

LGB (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1310 · SEA → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?