Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1471 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 1471 · SEA → ANC

departs 10:00 PM PT · arrives 12:36 AM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±7 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 35 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ANC that day

↑ 10pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

ANC (destination) Gusts35 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1471 · SEA → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?