AS 1490 · OGG → PDX

departs 11:01 AM HT · arrives 7:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↓ 11am departures from OGG are usually not late

↓ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.34 in

PDX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1490 · OGG → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?