Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1516 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 1516 · ANC → LAS

departs 11:25 PM AKT · arrives 5:45 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±5 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 35 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ANC that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts35 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.07 in

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1516 · ANC → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?