Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 19 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 19 · JFK → PDX

departs 10:05 AM ET · arrives 12:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from JFK are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 19 · JFK → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?