Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 206 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 206 · OGG → SEA

departs 11:21 PM HT · arrives 6:46 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are usually not late

↓ 11pm departures from OGG are usually not late

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.46 in

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 206 · OGG → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?