Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 259 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 259 · KOA → SEA

departs 10:22 PM HT · arrives 7:01 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at KOA that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 10pm departures from KOA are usually not late

↓ KOA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.08 in

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 259 · KOA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?