Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2628 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 2628 · IAH → SBD

departs 8:54 PM CT · arrives 10:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at SBD more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBD?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ SBD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2628 · IAH → SBD

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBD?