Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 284 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 284 · SEA → FAI

departs 6:44 PM PT · arrives 9:26 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAI?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Arrivals into FAI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

FAI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 284 · SEA → FAI

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAI?