Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 296 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 296 · EWR → SEA

departs 5:43 PM ET · arrives 8:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±5 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 296 · EWR → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?