Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 31 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 31 · JFK → SEA

departs 4:29 PM ET · arrives 8:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 31 · JFK → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?