AS 331 · ANC → FAI

departs 7:33 AM AKT · arrives 8:45 AM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAI?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAI

↑ Gusts to 35 kt, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ANC that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into FAI at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts35 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.12 in

FAI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 331 · ANC → FAI

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAI?